We are pleased to provide an update of our hotel industry coverage. As markets have stabilized and patterns have settled in, we will be doing this on a quarterly rather than a monthly basis going forward unless there are urgent developments that need to be reported on.
Summary of Key Performance Indicators
The industry recovery has continued over the past several months despite signs of weakness in the overall US economy. RevPAR gains have been maintained despite increasingly more difficult year-over-year comps. This is illustrated by the fact that for June and July, weekly year over year growth has generally been in only the 5 to 6% range, compared to the 8-10% numbers we saw through May. However, more of the growth is coming in rate as opposed to occupancy. Upper-upscale chains such as Marriott and Hilton, as well as suburban and urban hotels continue to lag some of the other market segments, as do the big Eastern cities, mostly because they were ahead of the curve on the upswing last year and have tougher comps. Other segments and markets, including luxury, resort and West Coast locations are still playing catch-up, and have racked up some pretty impressive growth numbers so far this year.
Real strength is observed in Florida, where Orlando in particular has absorbed significant supply growth and still managed to register big gains in both rates and occupancy. Universal Studio’s new Harry Potter attraction deserves a lot of the credit for this. Hawaii, at least Oahu, also seems to be doing very well on the STR numbers despite anxieties caused by the Japanese earthquake and high airfares, but anecdotally there has been significant softening on the outer islands in recent weeks.
There is fundamental weakness, however, in Washington DC and other government-dependent markets (e.g. Norfolk VA and smaller state capitals), for the short term, as government-related business is down due to uncertainties as to the outcome of the deficit-cutting and debt ceiling measures.
|2nd Quarter||YTD (thru 7/17/11)|
Source: Smith Travel Research, Raymond James US Research
The performance of major brands that are operated by publicly traded hotel companies reinforce these trends. Generally, higher scale and more urban-oriented brands have achieved better performance. It has not gone unnoticed that Marriott brands have been lagging the overall market for the past year or so. Part of this is due to the fact that they started to recover earlier and thus have tougher comparisons, but it is also true that their stable of brands is considered very conservative (less of that urban “edge”) than their competitors, particularly Starwood and Hyatt.
|Q2 2011||Rolling 4 Quarters|
|Marriott (full service)||4.1%||1.2%||5.4%||3.9%||1.4%||5.4%|
Source: Company earnings releases Outlook
There are some mixed signals on the overall outlook. On one hand, new supply growth continues at a very low pace of 0.8% YTD, as compared to a 5.8% annual rate on demand growth, however as will be discussed below, the pipeline is building, especially in certain markets. Gasoline and jet fuel prices are still relatively high, which has both direct and indirect impacts on travel patterns, but they appear to be stable for now. On the other hand, persistent weakness in the job and housing markets have dampened consumer confidence, and GDP growth coming out of the recession seems to have stalled; preliminary estimates of 2nd quarter growth are in the 1 – 2 % range, which is far below typical recovery levels.
Industry pundits PKF, Smith Travel Research and others have tempered their 2011 forecasts. PKF is currently predicting 6.9% RevPAR growth for the year (down from 7.1% three months ago), about 1/3 from rate and the balance in occupancy. For 2012, PKF is looking for 8.7%, also down a couple of tenths, however more of the growth (over half) is expected to come from ADR improvement.
STR’s current RevPAR forecast for 2011 is 6.1%, and 8.6% for 2012, again with growth coming largely from occupancy this year and rate next year, but those have not been updated since February. A new set of forecasts is expected to be released in early August at Smith Travel’s Data Conference.
Our view is that hotel operators are anxious to drive rate, but they are still a little nervous because no one wants to be the first in their market to raise prices; they would rather follow than lead. Although demand in general is up, it is still spotty on the group side in the short term (although 2012 is looking very strong in some markets), which makes compression more difficult. The other factor is price sensitivity, as on the business side, corporations are still putting pressure on hotels to keep rates steady, and leisure customers are increasingly turning to OTA’s (online travel agencies) to seek out the best deals. It is now more important than ever for hotels to employ sophisticated revenue management strategies to maximize yields, and increasing penetration of social networks beyond the basic Facebook/Twitter paradigms will be a key to this.
The transaction pace continues at dizzying levels. The overall economic uncertainty and supposed lack of debt capital does not seem to be affecting asset pricing, which appears to be defying gravity especially for public company acquisitions in major markets. Here is a sample of key transactions over the past several months:
|Date||Hotel||Location||Price ($MM)||# Keys||Price/Key||Buyer|
|Mar ’11||Viceroy||Santa Monica CA||$80.1||162||$494K||LaSalle|
|Mar ’11||Hilton Bayfront||San Diego||475.0||1,190||399||Sunstone|
|Mar ’11||Royal Palm||Miami||130.0||409||318||Undisclosed|
|Mar ’11||W Hotel||Boston||89.5||235||381||Pebblebrook|
|Apr ’11||Morgans Hotel||New York||52.7||113||466||FelCor|
|Apr ’11||Westin Gaslamp||San Diego||133.0||450||296||Pebblebrook|
|Apr ’11||Hotel Monaco||Seattle||51.2||189||271||Pebblebrook|
|Apr ’11||Mondrian||Los Angeles||137.0||237||578||Pebblebrook|
|May ’11||W City Center||Chicago||128.8||368||350||Chesapeake|
|May ’11||Embassy Suites||Phoenix||19.0||224||85||Sunstone|
|May ’11||St. Regis||Washington||100.0||193||518||Westbrook|
|May ’11||New York Palace||New York||400.0||899||444||Northwood|
|May ’11||JW Marriott||Denver||72.6||196||370||Diamondrock|
|May ’11||Courtyard Westside||Los Angeles||47.5||260||183||Hersha|
|May ’11||Royalton||New York||87.3||169||517||FelCor|
|May ’11||Sheraton National||Washington burbs||54.2||417||130||HEI|
|May ’11||Hilton Garden Inn||Chicago (O’Hare)||38.0||253||150||Apple REIT|
|May ’11||Se Hotel||San Diego||49.0||184||266||Kimpton|
|May ’11||Westin Las Fuentes||Los Angeles||92.0||350||263||HEI|
|May ’11||Radisson Lexington||New York||335.0||702||471||Diamondrock|
|Jun ’11||Algonquin||New York||76.0||174||437||Cornerstone|
|Jun ’11||Park Central Hotel||New York||405.5||934||434||LaSalle|
|Jun ’11||Yotel||New York||315.0||669||470||Kuwait RE|
|Jun ’11||Hotel Monaco||Baltimore||33.0||202||163||Kimpton|
|Jun ’11||Red Lion 5th Ave||Seattle||71.0||297||239||Lowe|
|Jun ’11||Hotel Indigo||San Diego||55.5||210||264||Chesapeake|
|Jun ’11||Denihan portfolio||New York||910.0||1,638||556||Pebblebrook|
|Jun ’11||Four Points Times Sq.||New York||112.0||244||459||Gehr Develop|
|Jun ’11||Courtyard Navy Yard||Washington||68.0||204||333||Chesapeake|
|Jun ’11||Embassy Suites||Chicago||18.0||237||76||Montclair|
|Jun ’11||Hyatt Union Square||New York||104.1||175||595||Hersha|
|Jul ’11||Summerfield/Sierra/ AVIA Portfolio (24 properties)||Various||802.0||3527||227||Hyatt|
|Jul ’11||Grand Hyatt||Washington DC||442.0||888||498||Host|
|Jul ’11||Innkeepers Portfolio (5 properties)||Various||195.0||764||255||Chatham|
|Jul ’11||Hyatt Place/Summerfield Portfolio (8 hotels)||Various||110.0||1092||101||Hyatt/ Noble JV|
|Jul ’11||W Diamond Head||Honolulu||18.5||51||363||Nobukca|
|Jul ’11||Hilton Garden Inns (2)||Omaha/PHX||45.5||300||152||Apple REIT|
|Jul ’11||Hotel Adaigio||San Francisco||42.3||171||247||Chesapeake|
|Jul ’11||Courtyard Waikiki||Honolulu||85.0||401||212||Rockpoint|
|Jul ’11||Marriott La Jolla||San Diego||70.9||360||197||HEI|
Note- these are only the highlights of transactions for full service hotels and resorts in major US markets. There were many more deals reported for international properties, gaming assets, small market and limited service properties. According to hotel broker Jones Lang LaSalle, total transactions in the Americas are expected to top $16 Billion this year, up from their previous forecast of $13 Billion. Transaction volume is up 187% year to date, but much of it was driven by some of the pricier New York deals.
Public Company News
IPO, Financing, Mergers and Acquisitions
A summary of Q2 earnings for the major companies that have reported as of July 28 is as follows:
|Company||Date Reported||Reported EPS*||Consensus EPS*||RevPAR Guidance for 2011|
|Starwood||July 28||0.50||0.46||7-9% (unch.)|
|Marriott||July 13||0.37||0.37||5.5-7.25% (lowered)|
|Host Hotels||July 21||0.31||0.29||6-7.5% (lowered)|
|La Salle||July 20||0.55||0.56||6-8% (unch.)|
|Wyndham||July 27||0.64||0.56||6-8% (raised)|
|Diamondrock||July 25||0.15||0.17||6-8% (unch.)|
*Generally excludes unusual items; figures are for FFO on REITS
Again, a mixed bag. Starwood Host and Wyndham had solid beats. Marriott was viewed as a disappointment, and LaSalle and Diamondrock also missed their numbers, but those were primarily due to ramp-up on new acquisitions. Our view is that the REIT’s who are actively acquiring properties, especially Pebblebrook and Chesapeake, will see pressure on their EBITDA/earnings as they based their (high) purchase prices more on future performance than how those hotels are actually doing.
As shown in the table (below), most hotel stocks have been trending sharply downwards; most of the damage was done in the May-June period, which is when it generally became clear that economic growth in 2011 was going to be below expectations. Hotel stocks tend to be a leading indicator, and they had run up quite a bit in the last quarter of 2010 and the first couple of months in 2011. Choice was particularly hard hit because it plays in the low-end segment which is most sensitive to gas prices, and Marriott was slammed because of a combination of its lagging growth compared to its peers and the spin off of its timeshare units, which was not favorably viewed by the Street. The only large cap hotel stock to buck the trend was HPT, which was driven in large part by its recent renegotiation of its lease terms with major operators (see above). By comparison, the Dow is up 6% for the year and is flat since April 1.
Publicly traded hotel company stock performance (US based companies with market capitalization in excess of $1Bn)
|Company||Type||Primary Segment (s)||Price as of 7/28/11||Change Since 4/1/11||Change Since 12/31/10|
|Marriot International||C-Corp||Upper Upscale,Luxury, Resorts||$33.16||(6.1%)||(19.8%)|
|Starwood Hotels||C-Corp||Upper Upscale, Luxury||$56.95||(2.0%)||(6.3%)|
|Host Hotels||REIT||Upper Upscale, Luxury||$16.18||(8.0%)||(9.2%)|
|Hospitality PropertiesTrust||REIT||Limited Services||$25.04||12.2%||14.7%|
Note- all prices adjusted for dividends paid
Source: Yahoo! Finance
The pace of development activity, from both public and private companies, seems to be accelerating in recent months. While there is the usual assortment of lower-end limited service highway hotels and convention center-oriented properties in tertiary markets, there are also a couple of notable full service projects which appear to be gaining momentum, including:
The logic for new builds is compelling in that demand is still expected to be very strong by the time these are completed in 2013/2014, and developers are afraid of missing the window. Due to overall softness in the economy, construction materials and labor costs are depressed (anecdotally running as much as 20-25% less than at the peak), and interest rates continue low, which makes the break-even point that much more attainable. Similar themes are also popping up in downtown commercial office building development in many major markets, which are fueling record high prices for existing well-located assets.
While many lenders are still reluctant to do construction financing, a combination of guarantees, high initial equity (in many cases the owners will contribute the land that they already own), availability of public money (think “JOBS!”) and a building sense of bandwagon momentum will (as they historically have done) magically result in the money pipe being opened up.
Other Industry News
US Economy General Statistics
Key Economic Indicators
|GDP||Q1 2011||Revised to 1.8% , at the same levels as the “advanced report” ; was up 2.8% in previous quarter|
|Consumer Confidence||Jul-11||The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 63.8, a two year low, which is a sharp decline from the 71.5 in June and the 74.3 in May|
|Unemployment||Jun-11||9.2%; up from 9.1% in May. The rate has crept upwards in recent months|
|CPI||Jun-11||Down 0.4% vs. for month and up 0.2% over the last 12 months. Excluding food and energy, the increases were 0.3% and 1.6% respectively. Energy prices were down 4.4% in June and down 1.0% in May 2011|
|Retail Sales||Jun-11||Up 0.2% for month; up 5.0% vs. year ago.|
|New Home Sales||Jun-11||4,770K units; down 0.8% from last month and down 8.8% vs. year ago. Home prices have rebounded slightly and are up 0.8% compared to last year, up 16.7% in 2011|
Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; various government agencies including US Department of Commerce